Could Brexit lead to Frexit – or Czexit?

Seán Hanley, Senior Lecturer in Comparative Central and East European Politics at UCL, examines the claims that Brexit may lead to significant political repercussions in other EU member states, including potentially a domino effect of EU referendums. A powerful coalition of forces – ranging from the driest of conservatives to Greens and the radical left and taking in big business,  trade unions, churches and universities … Continue reading Could Brexit lead to Frexit – or Czexit?

Post-Brexit, would Whitehall be able to rise to the challenge of negotiating the best possible deal?

Much will be expected of the civil service if Britain votes to leave the EU. Every Whitehall department and diplomats in Brussels will be embroiled in complex negotiations to thrash out a series of new relationships. Without additional resources and expertise, the UK’s ability to obtain the best possible deal may be hampered, writes Nicholas Wright, Teaching Fellow in EU Politics at UCL. Following a … Continue reading Post-Brexit, would Whitehall be able to rise to the challenge of negotiating the best possible deal?

Does the Prime Minister have to trigger Brexit talks under Article 50 after a vote to leave the EU?

Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty sets out the procedure for a member state leaving the EU, as would be the case for Brexit. In an earlier post, Alan Renwick, Deputy Director of the UCL Constitution Unit, discussed how Article 50 could lock the UK into negotiations that could tilt the balance of power away from the UK and make a second in/out referendum on an … Continue reading Does the Prime Minister have to trigger Brexit talks under Article 50 after a vote to leave the EU?

What happens if we vote for Brexit?

GB_balloonThe EU referendum could be held as early as June so clarity is needed about what will happen in the event of a vote to leave. In this post Alan Renwick, Deputy Director of the UCL Constitution Unit, explains Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which sets out the procedure for leaving the EU. Under it a second in/out referendum of the type floated by Boris Johnson among others is not possible. Anybody suggesting that voters can vote to ‘leave’ safe in the knowledge that they can later change their minds is either playing with fire or manipulating voters disingenuously.

2016 looks likely to be the year in which voters get to decide whether the UK will stay in the European Union. If David Cameron secures a deal with other EU leaders next month, we can expect to know the referendum date shortly afterwards. Then the key players will settle their positions and decide their core arguments. In the run-up to this crucial moment, we need clarity as to what the options are and what will happen in the event of a vote to remain or to leave.

The implications of a vote to remain are easily predicted: the UK will stay in the EU, with whatever tweaks to our terms of membership David Cameron has negotiated. But what happens in the event of a vote to leave? That is much less obvious. This post sets out the processes and probes their implications. Continue reading “What happens if we vote for Brexit?”

Britain and EU reform

EU Law Professor at UCL and co-initiator of the Britain & Europe project Piet Eeckhout revisits the question of EU reform, including different options for and legal as well as political constraints of such reform. He also makes a particular plea for the UK to not neglect Eurozone governance arrangements. This blog is devoted to the Britain & Europe question, which gained political prominence as … Continue reading Britain and EU reform