Uta Staiger, Christina Pagel and Christabel Cooper share the results of the last UCL survey (with fieldwork conducted by YouGov), which was generously funded by UCL Maths, UCL CORU and UCL’s Grand Challenge of Cultural Understanding. The data shows that with No-Deal now leavers’ preferred Brexit outcome, ruling it out could create problems for the Tories. Leave voters are also relatively untroubled by the economic impact of no-deal – in … Continue reading A No Deal Brexit is not the wish of the country but is now the preferred outcome for Leave voters
If the referendum was a once in a generation opportunity in this sense, that would imply that a second referendum would have to wait until at least the middle of the 2030s. But why should there be this delay? To be sure, it takes until 2034 for someone born in 2016 to reach the age of voting, but there are many people who were under the age of voting in 2016 who have now reached voting age. The turnover of people in ‘a people’ is a continuous process.
Because generational change is continuous, it makes no sense to say that there should be a delay in holding another referendum until a new generation comes to political maturity. Rather, a once in a generation decision is a big decision because it concerns membership of an international organization.
EU membership involves a commitment to its rules and institutions. No international organization, and especially no organization with the dense degree of regulatory authority possessed by the EU, can function if its members adopt the attitude of ‘here today and gone tomorrow’, particularly if you add ‘maybe back another day’. The referendum decision is a once in a generation decision because few generations are called upon to make a decision with such momentous consequences.
Yet, the same reasons for saying that the referendum decision should not be quickly or easily reversible are the same reasons for making it a hard decision to take in the first place.
One way of doing this is to require in a referendum that a change be supported not just by a simple majority of those voting, but also by a certain threshold of those eligible to vote. For example, in the Scottish referendum on devolution in 1979, devolution required both a simple majority of those voting but also the support of at least 40 per cent of those eligible to vote. However, many people do not like fancy franchises of this sort for the good reason that any such threshold seems arbitrary.
Yet, there is another way of forcing more careful decision making, by analogy with two-chamber legislatures. Where a second chamber does not merely mirror the first, a two-chamber legislative processes will force a pause on making a major change of policy, whilst still allowing each chamber to operate on a simple majority.
By analogy, a second confirmatory referendum, pitching the current withdrawal agreement against the option of remaining, would be like having a two-chamber legislative system. Continuous generational replacement would mean that the second round would be decided by a set of people distinct from the first round, but it would not prevent those who voted in the first round and were still capable of voting in the second round from reconfirming their choice.
I suggest that it is against this background that we see the proposal by the MPs Phil Wilson and Peter Kyle to support the Prime Minister’s withdrawal agreement conditional on that agreement being put to the country in a second referendum. A once in a generation decision is a decision that would benefit from the two-round scrutiny that accompanies normal legislation.
In this second post in a series of 4 for the Political Quarterly, Albert Weale explores what it could possibly mean to say that the people are sovereign. As the sovereignty of the people can never exceed that given to them by the constitution and Parliament cannot bind its successors, he invites us to consider Brexit as a changing process rather than a one-off binding event. … Continue reading A second Brexit referendum: The myth of popular sovereignty
In this first post in a series of 4 for the Political Quarterly, Albert Weale explores the reasoning behind the belief that running a second referendum would not be democratic. As a core British constitutional principle relies on the fact that Parliament cannot bind its successors, he invites us to consider Brexit as a changing process rather than a one-off binding event. There might … Continue reading A second Brexit referendum: The problem of constitutional agency
Over £9m has been spent on leaflets for all British household outlining the arguments in favour of remaining in the EU. But do campaign activities actually sway voters in referendums? Would campaigners do best to try to change minds, or simply motivate their supporters to turn out at the polls? Which arguments will prove decisive? Sara Hobolt, Professor at the LSE European Institute, and Sara Hagemann, … Continue reading Turn out or else: do referendum campaigns actually change voters’ minds?