Luis González García considers the specificity of the EU trade policy to explain the perceived rigidity of the EU negotiators on Brexit. The EU applies two approaches to its trade policy through either integration (strong regulatory alignment and strong market access) or liberalisation (looser arrangements): this explains why an ad hoc model which offers full market access but does not ensure a level playing field cannot … Continue reading Understanding the EU’s negotiating position on trade in the Brexit negotiations
Piet Eeckhout and Clément Leroy examine various models for the UK-EU trade relationship after Brexit, and argue that a so-called bespoke agreement beyond existing frameworks is not available. This blog draws on Piet Eeckhout’s report Future trade relations between the EU and the UK: options after Brexit, which he is presenting to the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee on Thursday 17 May (watch here). The future trade relationship between the … Continue reading Post-Brexit Trade Relations: No Middle Way Between Free Trade Agreement and Internal Market
Taking a macroeconomic perspective, Paul Welfens reflects what the findings of his book ‘An Accidental Brexit’ mean in light of new developments in the Brexit negotiations. He argues that if the true economic consequences had been known, the referendum would have turned out differently and shows the potential pitfalls of the ‘Global Britain’ approach to international trade. The joint statement by PM May and President of the European … Continue reading An Accidental Brexit: a Disorderly Referendum and Illusions of a ‘Global Britain’
Amid talk of a UK-EU trade deal, many seem to have forgotten that the divorce talks need to happen first. Kirsty Hughes, Senior Fellow at Friends of Europe, explains that both processes are unlikely to run as smoothly as some might like to believe. She notes that Theresa May faces a range of complex challenges in the Brexit negotiations which her speech failed to mention. … Continue reading Canada-Dry: Where next for UK-EU Brexit talks?
Ian Preston, Professor of Economics at UCL, notes that Brexit will likely lead to reduced migration. As migrants tend to be of working-age, this could result in a smaller proportion of the population comprising the labour-force, which could have a negative impact on UK tax receipts and public finances more broadly. Brexit will have high fiscal costs and a large part of that will be … Continue reading Why Britain’s public finances will suffer if Brexit reduces migration