Taking a macroeconomic perspective, Paul Welfens reflects what the findings of his book ‘An Accidental Brexit’ mean in light of new developments in the Brexit negotiations. He argues that if the true economic consequences had been known, the referendum would have turned out differently and shows the potential pitfalls of the ‘Global Britain’ approach to international trade. The joint statement by PM May and President of the European … Continue reading An Accidental Brexit: a Disorderly Referendum and Illusions of a ‘Global Britain’
Amid talk of a UK-EU trade deal, many seem to have forgotten that the divorce talks need to happen first. Kirsty Hughes, Senior Fellow at Friends of Europe, explains that both processes are unlikely to run as smoothly as some might like to believe. She notes that Theresa May faces a range of complex challenges in the Brexit negotiations which her speech failed to mention. … Continue reading Canada-Dry: Where next for UK-EU Brexit talks?
Ian Preston, Professor of Economics at UCL, notes that Brexit will likely lead to reduced migration. As migrants tend to be of working-age, this could result in a smaller proportion of the population comprising the labour-force, which could have a negative impact on UK tax receipts and public finances more broadly. Brexit will have high fiscal costs and a large part of that will be … Continue reading Why Britain’s public finances will suffer if Brexit reduces migration
Katie Daughen, head of Brexit research and support services at the British Irish Chamber of Commerce, assesses the economic risk which Brexit poses to Ireland. She argues that Brexit is especially dangerous for the UK-Irish relationship, and that businesses in both countries need to work together during the negotiations to ensure their interests are represented. From a British and Irish business perspective, Brexit has the potential … Continue reading Brexit: Ireland stands to lose the most
It is becoming increasingly clear that economists were wrong to forecast a major economic shock immediately after the Brexit vote. Iain Begg, Professorial Research Fellow at the LSE European Institute, asks whether the pessimists are wrong, whether it’s too early to tell or whether there are other forces at work? More than five months on from the referendum, it is still hard to establish how much the … Continue reading The economy after Brexit: encouragingly resilient or still a case of ‘wait and see’?