Kirsty Hughes

Trump’s wrecking ball in the last four weeks goes much further than Europe, of course – to American democracy, international institutions, American aid, the Middle East and around the world. Trump’s actions have strengthened Russia – and China too – in what was already an unstable global environment.

In the Middle East, Trump’s backing for Israel’s far right government is not helping the rickety ceasefire in Gaza progress nor the continuing attacks in the West Bank, and is deliberately undermining any path to a two state solution.

Europe on the Back Foot?

Some criticize European governments and the EU for not being more prepared for this Trump onslaught. But few may have predicted Trump would concede to so many of Putin’s demands so fast, hold talks (that should not be labelled peace talks) between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine, or any other NATO allies present, or call president Zelensky a dictator – all in a week.

President Macron has moved quickly in response over the last week. His first, small informal summit in Paris on Monday, that lacked a clear, common read-out afterwards, left the media to present it as a falling out over troop commitments in the case of a Ukrainian peace deal.

Yet Macron’s bigger, mainly online summit on Wednesday successfully brought together 19 countries including, as well as EU member states (but excluding the renegade, likely blockers of Hungary and Slovakia), the UK, Norway, Iceland and Canada. Turkey also needs to be included in this flexible grouping.

Macron, as well as Keir Starmer, is now expected to head to Washington next week. And Macron, Starmer and Germany’s Scholz (facing elections on Sunday that he is clearly expected to lose) have all, if in different voices, expressed support for Ukraine and president Zelensky in the face of Trump’s attacks.

Starmer, on Sunday, said he would put UK troops on the ground in Ukraine if necessary to defend a peace deal. This rapidly shifted into Franco-British talks around a possible ‘reassurance force’ as – whatever peace deal may or not be agreed – the idea of European-NATO peace-keeping troops on the border between Ukraine and Russia is widely seen as unlikely. And after Germany’s elections, then a German contribution to any ‘reassurance force’ will be easier to discuss and more likely.

Keir Starmer has said a US backstop is vital for any European military force. This point will clearly be central to his mission, as he sees it, for his US visit next week. But it may prove to be unhelpful to state that so baldly when there’s no guarantee at all that the US will provide any security guarantees – and when currently there are no peace talks let alone anything resembling a peace deal. Meanwhile, Macron and others have insisted that European security structures are Europe’s responsibility and not for others – the US and Russia – to agree.

For the US, national security adviser Mike Waltz today told the Ukrainians to sign the rare earth minerals demand that Trump put forward as part of a path to peace. The accumulation of unreasonable demands is, as intended, not helping any serious US-Ukraine-Europe dialogue.

Where is the EU in this – and the UK?

In this rapid, unprecedented and fast-moving environment, the EU has been more in the background. This is not hugely surprising. These are big, extremely difficult security and foreign policy questions, that call on nation states to cooperate and move very fast. That is not the EU’s role at this point, not least if it cannot summon up unity across the 27.

But the EU did agree a fresh sanctions package against Russia this week. Commission president von der Leyen has called for flexibility on EU debt rules for defence spending, and the EU will have a summit of its 27 leaders – long scheduled – next week.

There is plenty of food for thought as this crisis unfolds for the UK’s relationship to the EU. UK neuralgia on youth mobility or tentative steps on aligning on veterinary rules look absurd given the context we are now in. But, for now, the only EU enlargement and actual accession candidate the political debate should be focusing on is Ukraine. Depending how events unfold in the weeks ahead, a much more rapid accession for Ukraine may be vital.

The UK will have no influence on this. But the UK is there at Macron’s European summits, and in the developing geopolitics. There will be time later to re-consider the UK’s position on the EU sidelines post-Brexit.

Europe’s leaders will also need to be reaching out internationally. Countries such as South Africa have looked askance at Europe’s defence of Ukrainian sovereignty in contrast to the support of too many European countries for Israel’s genocidal attack on Gaza – and with the UK and Germany even today still supplying arms to Israel. That does not mean South Africa or Brazil or India will welcome a Trumpian collapse of international institutions and the destruction of the role of the UN.

France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, at the foreign ministers G20 meeting in South Africa, wrote in today’s Guardian that north and south need to come together to defend international institutions and a rule-based world order. Barrot references the climate crisis, the crises in DRC and in Sudan, amongst others in his wide-ranging and well considered piece. Keir Starmer appears to be taking a more softly, softly approach. He still hopes to find ways to moderate Trump’s wrecking ball but he will need to speak out more clearly and strongly in the coming weeks and months.

Europe is not in a strong position as Trump turns the US into a foe more than an ally of Europe, and an undemocratic foe as well. But Europe is not weak across the board. And if Macron can continue to lead and coordinate with EU and non-EU states alike, and back Ukraine, then in these deeply unpredictable times, that is the start of a vital fightback. 

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Kirsty Hughes was the founder and director of the Scottish Centre on European Relations from 2017-2021 and is a member of the European Institute Advisory Board

This blog was also published on Kirsty Hughes Europe & Scotland substack here

Note: The views expressed in this post are those of the author, and not of the UCL European Institute, nor of UCL.

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Featured Image: “an airplane flying through a cloudy sky on a cloudy day” by Edoardo Bortoli on Unsplash